Student visa applications withdrawn

The Department of Home Affairs does not routinely report statistics on withdrawn student visa applications. At my request, they supplied me with student visa applications withdrawn data for 2019, 2023 and 2024. 2019 is my pre-COVID, pre-migration policy change, comparison year.

As I expected, with a stable market and policy framework the proportion of visa applications that are withdrawn is quite low - equivalent to around 1% of applications lodged in 2019. I don't know of any research into these withdrawn applicants, but perhaps their circumstances changed or they received a better offer from another country.

My hypothesis in making my data request was that the period of rapid change in international education policy from the later months of 2023 created new incentives to withdraw student visa applications.

An unusual period for visa processing

In 2023 visa grant rates fell significantly, especially for vocational education but also for higher education. Applications that would once have been successful were being rejected. That altered incentives for both students and education providers.

For prospective students less predictability in student visa applications increases risks. Not only is their chance of studying in Australia reduced, but visa refusals must be declared in future visa applications, although the significance of this depends on the reason for the refusal. If an applicant believes their application is likely to be refused it would be prudent to withdraw it.

For education providers, visa refusual rates feed into their overall immigration risk rating. That in turn affects how much evidence their students need to provide in their visa applications. More importantly from December 2023, under the controversial ministerial direction 107, a higher evidence level meant slower visa processing.

By February 2024 the media was reporting that universities had cancelled confirmations of enrolment (which are needed for student visa applications) or encouraged previously accepted students to withdraw their applications.

Were more visas withdrawn in 2023 and 2024?

Looking only at annual visa withdrawn totals there was not a major change between 2019 and 2023. Visa applications withdrawn increased from 4,156 in 2019 to 5,700 in 2023, but total applications were much higher in 2023. As a percentage of visas lodged in 2019 and 2023, withdrawn applications were equivalent to about 1% of total applications lodged in both years.

For 2024 the number of visa applications withdrawn increased to 15,348 - 3.6% of applications lodged. Vocational education withdrawal rates (6.1%) were much higher than the overall rate or the higher education rate (2.8%). This presumably reflects lower visa grant rates in vocational education, which were below 60% for most of 2024. Higher education grant rates only fell below 80% in one month during 2024.

Monthly data - higher education

Monthly figures can help us see connections between events and policy changes.

Although across all sectors in 2023 recorded student visa applications withdrawn were similar to 2019, in higher education we see some monthly sharp increases, notably June and September. This may reflect issues with visa fraud in applications from some parts of India. Fraud in a visa application counts heavily against both the applicant and the education provider.

Monthly higher education application withdrawal numbers for 2024 show a peak in March, matching the time of media publicity of providers trying to get high-risk applications out of the system. March was the month when the grant rate fell below 80% (just, to 79%).

By late 2024 monthly visa applications withdrawn were well down on earlier in the year. Fewer applications were being made, possibly reflecting less interest in Australian higher education but also agents and providers more effectively filtering out weak contenders.

Late 2024 applications withdrawn were, however, still above 2019 or 2023 levels.

Monthly data - vocational education

For vocational education, as in higher education, March 2024 is a key month. Withdrawn applications spiked sharply. But unlike in higher education, large numbers of applications were still being withdrawn every month through to November 2024.

Perhaps surprisingly, vocational applications withdrawn in 2023 were lower than in 2019, although we can see them picking up from October 2023.

Applicants giving up?

In addition to the tactical reasons for withdrawing an application, simply giving up on Australia may also have been a factor.

As of June 2024, the median student visa processing time was 94 days for higher education applications and 171 days for vocational education applications.

It would be understandable if applicants just cut their losses and moved on.